Can Paravur break with the past by ending political deadlock?

Paravur municipality elections follow a pattern of intense competition and political fluctuation, a dynamic that ensures that neither the Left Democratic Front nor the United Democratic Front can capture an outright majority, thereby precipitating hung councils. Although the battle in the 32-ward local body is primarily between two major fronts, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance is steadily gaining ground, further complicating the outcomes and underscoring the municipality’s tendency toward political deadlock.

Analysing the last three elections reveals a pattern of intense uncertainty. While the 2015 elections saw the LDF secure a rare clear majority with 17 seats, both 2010 (UDF secured 16 seats) and 2020 resulted in hung councils. The 2020 poll was particularly dramatic, ending in a 14-14 tie between the LDF and UDF. The LDF’s tally dropped from 17 in 2015 to 14, losing seats to both opponents. The UDF made significant gains, increasing its tally from 11 to 14 seats, marking a strong comeback in the municipality. Meanwhile the NDA improved its position from 3 to 4 seats, making it the decisive factor in forming the council. Ultimately, the position of municipal chairperson went to the UDF’s Sreeja P.

The 2020 deadlock underscored the municipality’s persistent lack of a stable, long-term political allegiance. This political uncertainty and the resultant hung councils, according to residents, have severely impacted municipal development. They criticise both the LDF and UDF for showing little interest in improving the area’s conditions. For the working-class population, largely engaged in coir and handloom sectors, the lack of significant, tangible changes that make a solid difference in their lives remains a major frustration.

A notable trend in Paravur is the growing influence of NDA. Although its remains a distant third, its consistent growth, rising from 1 seat in 2010 to 4 seats in 2020, grants it a decisive position as it can now influence the formation of the ruling council, especially when there is a tie between LDF and UDF.

Outright majority

In the upcoming polls, the UDF is contesting all 32 seats (Congress 30, RSP 2), while the LDF fields CPI(M) in 26 seats and CPI in 6. The BJP will contest 29 wards, leaving out Thekkumbhagam, Vadakkumbhagam, and Puthiyakavu. The pressure point of the current political narrative is the absolute necessity for the two primary fronts to secure an outright majority in order to avoid reliance on the NDA or the hassle of post-poll coalition building.